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🌪️ SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK – SATURDAY, MAY 17, 2025 (20Z Update)
SPC Risk Level: ENHANCED (Level 3 of 5)
Valid through 7 AM CDT Sunday
📍 Major Cities in Risk Zones
🟠 ENHANCED Risk (7.9M people): Dallas, TX, Fort Worth, TX, Arlington, TX, Plano, TX, Garland, TX
🟡 SLIGHT Risk (13.7M people): Oklahoma City, OK, Tulsa, OK, Wichita, KS, Shreveport, LA, Little Rock, AR
🟢 MARGINAL Risk (42M people): New York, NY, Austin, TX, Memphis, TN, Boston, MA, Newark, NJ
🌪️ Tornado Risk Zones
🟤 5% Tornado Risk: Dallas, TX, Fort Worth, TX, Oklahoma City, OK, Arlington, TX, Plano, TX
🟢 2% Tornado Risk: Tulsa, OK, Shreveport, LA, Little Rock, AR, Springfield, MA, Abilene, TX
What the Percentages Mean
A 5% tornado risk means there's a 1 in 20 chance of a tornado occurring within 25 miles of your location.
Storms today are likely to start as supercells, then evolve into clusters capable of tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds.
📝 Overview
A significant severe weather setup is underway across northeast TX, southeast OK, southwest AR, and northwest LA.
Supercells with very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes are likely this afternoon and evening, with a transition to a bowing MCS expected into the evening and overnight hours.
⛈️ Hazards Include
🌪️ A few tornadoes, some possibly strong
🧊 Very large hail (2"+) from discrete supercells
💨 Damaging wind gusts (possibly 70+ mph) from evening clusters
🕓 Timeline
🕒 3–6 PM CDT: Supercells developing along the dryline from central TX into southeast OK
🌆 6–9 PM CDT: Tornado and giant hail threat peaks with maturing supercells
🌒 9 PM – 2 AM CDT: Storms congeal into MCS; wind and embedded tornado threat continues across AR and into northern MS
📌 Regional Notes
🟠 North TX and southeast OK: Best chance for strong tornadoes and giant hail, especially DFW to Ardmore region
🟡 AR/LA: Clusters later tonight may bring wind damage and embedded rotation
🟢 Northeast U.S. (NY/New England): Isolated strong storms with hail, wind, and possibly a brief tornado
⚠️ Stay Weather-Aware
If you're in or near Dallas, Fort Worth, Sherman, or the Red River Valley, tornadoes and giant hail are possible this evening.
Charge your phone, review your shelter plan, and enable multiple ways to receive warnings.
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